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Post by imaginaryfriend on Apr 4, 2022 7:04:31 GMT
We'd already guessed it but yes Anthony was sent places to compare the predictions to what actually happened. But recently it's been getting more inaccurate? Interesting. Stuff's changing where they can't perceive it. [edit] Back in Ch. 17 Antimony observed that three new medium candidates being trained after the position being long vacant coincided with the creatures of the Wood becoming restless. Jones replied that "the Court has its way of making decisions." [/edit] |
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Post by maxptc on Apr 4, 2022 7:14:53 GMT
Call me a suspicious person, but I blame Coyete. Why wouldn't a prediction machine work perfectly while accounting for the ether, as long as it benefited a god like Coyete. Maybe he wasnt even doing it intentionally, but the chaotic order Coyete had over everything would make such machine possible as long as it benefited him. Then, when the order Coyete achieved was thrown off by Loup bam, error codes and infinite possibilities because of inexperienced magic users.
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Post by madjack on Apr 4, 2022 7:16:07 GMT
I hope we find out just how recently so it can be lined up to a known event (heh). It could be anything from the Norns allowing Kat to change the timeline, the arrow and Jeanne being freed or Loup/the NP's existence. Hmm.
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Post by theonethatgotaway on Apr 4, 2022 7:19:18 GMT
"Inaccuracies? In THIS all-knowing future-predecting machine? At this critical point in time? In this part of the world? Localised entirely within the Court???"
"Mmmmyes?"
"Can I see it?"
"No."
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Post by imaginaryfriend on Apr 4, 2022 7:19:25 GMT
I blame Antimony. One of the first things she did was send Shadow back to the Wood accompanied by Robot which riled up Ysengrin. The third thing she did was spring Renard. Then she started mucking with Zeta.
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Post by aline on Apr 4, 2022 7:22:47 GMT
I hope we find out just how recently so it can be lined up to a known event (heh). It could be anything from the Norns allowing Kat to change the timeline, the arrow and Jeanne being freed or Loup/the NP's existence. Hmm. I think you're spot on about the first one. A machine that predicts the future is bound to be irrtitated with somebody messing with time. Perhaps the hostility of the Court towards Annie is because they linked their machine's loss of accuracy with her and think she's the one messing with them. If Annie should not have been in this timeline then pretty much everything of consequence she does would be "wrong" from the perspective of the device. |
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Post by blahzor on Apr 4, 2022 7:33:50 GMT
Rewatched Devs just because of this
Show still holds up and paced just as slow as this ha
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Post by zbeeblebrox on Apr 4, 2022 8:27:58 GMT
Rewatched Devs just because of this Show still holds up and paced just as slow as this ha Heh, and much like how the DEVS system couldn't account for an angry aloof girl with a dead boyfriend she kept futilely trying to avenge, Omega probably never accounted for Jeanne. |
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Post by bicarbonat on Apr 4, 2022 8:57:29 GMT
Cookies all 'round! Very interesting that the Court's trying to execute such a massive exeunt while knowing that the wheels are falling off and they're not even completely sure why. Prognostication is like a street drug that was never completely pure but was pretty potent, and just keeps getting cut with contaminants by an unknown party. And the Court, as we've seen, has shooters. |
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Post by blahzor on Apr 4, 2022 10:50:47 GMT
Cookies all 'round! Very interesting that the Court's trying to execute such a massive exeunt while knowing that the wheels are falling off and they're not even completely sure why. Prognostication is like a street drug that was never completely pure but was pretty potent, and just keeps getting cut with contaminants by an unknown party. And the Court, as we've seen, has shooters. something is always right 30% of the time? keep using til that baby hits 0 |
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Post by arf on Apr 4, 2022 11:26:15 GMT
Where's a decent alethiometer when you need one?
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Post by todd on Apr 4, 2022 12:31:50 GMT
[edit] Back in Ch. 17 Antimony observed that three new medium candidates being trained after the position being long vacant coincided with the creatures of the Wood becoming restless. Jones replied that "the Court has its way of making decisions." [/edit] Which raises the question: has the Court become too dependent on the Omega Device? As in, letting its predictions do all the thinking and decision-making for them? (This might even explain some of the court's more puzzling actions - or even inactions, such as a lack of response to the events in "The Torn Sea" - and even apparently allowing the events to happen.) |
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Post by AluK on Apr 4, 2022 13:26:58 GMT
The interesting aspect of a "prediction machine" is if it can be used backwards: set up a desirable end state, your input state and it walks you from one to the other.
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Post by ctso74 on Apr 4, 2022 15:10:53 GMT
I, for one, see no way this could backfire on the Court.
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Post by drmemory on Apr 4, 2022 16:07:05 GMT
I predict (heh) that I'll also get a cookie for my theory that this is why the court wants all non-human beings gone. They want to be able to totally control everything, and the ether messes up Omega. Control by being able to predict, that is. If they want a specific result and can predict the outcome of any action they may take, they can in theory keep adjusting their planned actions and re-running their predictions until they get the results they want. A few people figured out the prediction thing but I don't remember anyone else linking it to the "no human" thing as early? I'm sure I'll be slapped instead of cookie-ified if I'm wrong about that. Sigh.
Not sure if they can also run the simulation backwards from a desired state - that's a harder problem. Consider starting with a specific state in an MMORPG and trying to reverse it to figure out how you got there, vs. predicting how hard a boss fight will be based on the capabilities of the players. I think that latter case may be closer to what we are seeing. For a prediction not involving thinking beings, like the slug sex thing, you can be very accurate and it is relatively easy to predict (still a lot of data). For a prediction including humans, you'll have a lot more uncertainty BUT you can build pretty good abstractions (models), limiting what the humans involved can do. Nobody is going to magically fly or set things on fire with their minds or just change the shape or characteristics of any objects involved with their minds. Again, in the game scenario, you may be able to predict that if N players show up and they have the aggregate powers to kill the boss, that they will do so, but trying to lock down the details of which player will do exactly what actions and at what times and in what orders just isn't doable, even retrospectively (barring detailed recordings). This is because humans are different and have quirks and maybe have to step away to deal with dogs barking or babies crying or what have you - roughly the equivalent of factors Omega can't control for.
Short form - predicting that N human-controlled players with known skills will be able to take out a boss (or that they won't) isn't that hard of a problem. Figuring out where each was standing, how fast they reacted, what specific skills they used in what order, is both much harder and doesn't matter - Omega doesn't need to do this. Abstractions are fine. I'm sure Jerrek would agree. This is why Omega can work - it doesn't really need to model every atom or even every hand, it just needs to use fairly high-level models of aggregate capability to predict events. It doesn't need to reverse the simulation because the details don't matter.
An even simpler scenario. You've got a huge rock. You put it in a place. If only humans are around, nobody can move or destroy the rock, so long as you are careful to control what tools are available to them and how many humans are present. You can abstract the capabilities of the humans based on typical strength and such, so it isn't that hard, relatively speaking. If Loup is around, he can change the rock into butterflies or whatever, and you don't have any idea how he does it and can't stop him. So if you want to put that rock there and make it remain there, unmolested, you have to keep Loup away from it.  |
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Post by imaginaryfriend on Apr 4, 2022 16:13:07 GMT
"Good morning, Johnathan. The weather will be mostly sunny transitioning to overcast in the early afternoon. You will need your overcoat but not an umbrella.
Your lucky color today is gray; a gray tie of any shade or pattern will bring order and stability to your day. Your unlucky color is red, avoid people wearing red and people with red hair in particular. Your work today will be productive. Diversification reduces risk. If asked about lunch takeout do not order fish. Remember to pay attention to your health; if you don't have your health you don't have anything. Should you forget your blood pressure medicine do not skip, take the dose as soon as you remember. Ignore any blond haired boys that hang out with your daughter; they are not romantic interests. Devote free time to relaxation and creativity. Going to bed early will abet a good night's rest. Oscar. Mike. Echo. Gamma. Alpha. One. One. Three. Out."
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Post by drmemory on Apr 4, 2022 16:30:15 GMT
Different but related topic. I'll try to keep it shorter and less dense. Sorry, I know how I write!
I think the court is now almost panicking because their master plan to control everything can't succeed as long as any etheric beings are around. The decision to not bring along any non-humans (not just ether-using ones) is either an over-reaction or a sign that they can't model other non-humans well either. The panic is because they don't know how to do this now that their attempts to steal a huge amount of etheric power have failed.
This is very concerning. Why did they want all that power? I really thought it was something to do with the move - powering the move or building a barrier after. I now fear that it is to be used to get rid of all the non-humans. Not just prevent them from coming along, eliminating. Would they be willing to suck all the ether energy from everyone in the court or the forest in order to meet their goals? Is that really a question even?
Anyway, that's why they are so single-minded. They've known all along that they had to leave behind all non-humans in order to build their "perfect world", and we have not. I doubt very much if they care about anything other than their plan and may even consider casualties among those left behind or drained of ether to be a good thing. Taking care of the elves? Fixing the buildings? Resuming classes? Pffft, who cares. The school houses were only there to nicely segregate the non-humans anyway!
On the bright side, I don't think the other students will go along with this once they hear about it. Some of them hate the wierdos but a lot of them have friends among their numbers, including Llanwellyn's daughter.
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Post by mochakimono on Apr 4, 2022 16:43:21 GMT
You know what they say: When a butterfly flaps its wings somewhere, a fingerprint on the moon stops a hurricane from forming somewhere else.
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Post by fia on Apr 4, 2022 19:30:29 GMT
I somehow doubt Kat was the reason for the inaccuracy, or at least the Kat that went back in time. The going back in time was logically consistent – nothing in the past was actually changed, just made to be as it had been the first time they all experienced it.
The New People and Kat's other technological innovations, Jeanne, Smitty not dying because of an intervention by the psychopomps (but also not predictably dying because they didn't tell anyone they were going to chase after Jeanne), Red and Ayilu getting names ahead of schedule, Annie's fission and fusion, the creation of Loup and that whole plot development with the seeds and the Annan waters being removed, and all the secret-ish plots by Robot could, however, have had an effect on the predictions.
Somehow though I think it's likely Annie is at the center-ish of it, because I don't know that they would have bothered to bring/force Anthony back otherwise. He has seemed pretty controllable and obedient up until now, and his daughter is the opposite, on top of which she has a lot of powerful etheric friends who like chaos. But I don't think Annie by herself is even nearly the whole story. She's probably unique in spacetime, like a djinn, by now because of the time stuff (technically being almost dead) and the fission/fusion and the fact that her birth was kind of unlikely, but I wouldn't say she's a primordial agent of chaos.
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Post by mturtle7 on Apr 4, 2022 20:27:13 GMT
I somehow doubt Kat was the reason for the inaccuracy, or at least the Kat that went back in time. The going back in time was logically consistent – nothing in the past was actually changed, just made to be as it had been the first time they all experienced it. The potential problem, as I see it, is that the time travel incident might be logically consistent form the characters' point of view, but it might not be so from the point of view of a computer extrapolating entirely from base conditions that were measured before the Tic-toc showed up. The Tic-toc DID appear, but there wasn't any actual basis for it appearing in the physical world, so I think it's entirely possible that if Omega had tried to predict the outcome of Annie falling into the ravine, it would conclude that she'd die, and if that conclusion was allowed to be introduced to its overall model of Gunnerkrigg Court, it would kill the accuracy of the whole thing.
Plus, this theory has the added benefit of being relatively unique to etheric events in the Forest and Gunnerkrigg Court. Jerrek may have a point about the ether being theoretically difficult to predict, but it surely can't be impossible, considering that the machine apparently predicted the need for a new Medium before Antimony arrived. That particular prediction makes it clear that the Forest is absolutely taken into account in Omega's calculations, and thus we can assume that the mere presence of Etheric creatures and phenomena doesn't prevent Omega from making accurate predictions. But the intervention of the Tic-toc(s) was more than an etheric phenomenon; it was a phenomenon whose origins lay outside of normal time and space! If even the bureaucracy underlying conceptual ownership-space doesn't usually take magic time travel into account when evaluating things, I can totally see the Court forgetting about that little edge case as well.
Of course, this is all just Wild Speculation based on the single most recent page, so I'm not making any confident assertions here!
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Post by mordekai on Apr 4, 2022 21:53:15 GMT
Earth is NOT an enclosed system... how could the Omega Device predict stuff happening in the Amazon rainforest...? There is SO much stuff from outside Earth that could influence the growth of that plant Anthony was observing! Minute variations in the intensity of sunlight, the influence of the solar winds over Earth's atmosphere (and hence weather)...etc.
Also... how could the Omega Device predict the need of a Medium? They needed a Medium because of Coyote, Ysengrim and the Forest, and all these Etheric creature and phenomena should mess with the predictions of the Omega Device...
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Post by imaginaryfriend on Apr 4, 2022 22:23:24 GMT
Earth is NOT an enclosed system... how could the Omega Device predict stuff happening in the Amazon rainforest...? Badly and/or in a self-fulfilling way, I'd guess. They have a lot of data about what's going on in the Court, and probably a bunch from weather stations and satellites around the globe, plus they can harvest other data from secondary sources (some historical) and look for correlations and patterns. I don't think they can control for the impact that the Omega prediction has on Court personnel and have it still be Omega, not even if filtered through several layers of bureaucracy blindly, therefore some bored teens were sent to the jungle to watch slugs get it on. Thus a hookup happened that wouldn't have happened otherwise, and a major turning point for the Court came and went without being properly reported at the time, probably. If anyone else revisited that event and corrected the data in hindsight remains to be seen. My guess is no. GI/GO is a real thing. Also... how could the Omega Device predict the need of a Medium? They needed a Medium because of Coyote, Ysengrim and the Forest, and all these Etheric creature and phenomena should mess with the predictions of the Omega Device... I assume what they mean is that the variables coming from the Wood were/are getting threatening and out of control so the people of the Court looked at the data and said that something needed to be done... but if the Omega device itself literally announced the need for a medium we're talking about a whole other species of beast. |
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Post by pyradonis on Apr 4, 2022 23:02:13 GMT
I blame Antimony. One of the first things she did was send Shadow back to the Wood accompanied by Robot which riled up Ysengrin. The third thing she did was spring Renard. Then she started mucking with Zeta. Many other students caused many other kinds of trouble, I'm not seeing why any of these things would cause trouble with Omega's predictions. In fact, if one knows Annie's and Ysengrin's personalities I would argue these events were quite predictable! IMHO, unpredictability could only come in when Annie was supposed to die, but didn't thanks to time travel.
I somehow doubt Kat was the reason for the inaccuracy, or at least the Kat that went back in time. The going back in time was logically consistent – nothing in the past was actually changed, just made to be as it had been the first time they all experienced it. The potential problem, as I see it, is that the time travel incident might be logically consistent form the characters' point of view, but it might not be so from the point of view of a computer extrapolating entirely from base conditions that were measured before the Tic-toc showed up. The Tic-toc DID appear, but there wasn't any actual basis for it appearing in the physical world, so I think it's entirely possible that if Omega had tried to predict the outcome of Annie falling into the ravine, it would conclude that she'd die, and if that conclusion was allowed to be introduced to its overall model of Gunnerkrigg Court, it would kill the accuracy of the whole thing. Agree. I would also like to point out that the Court didn't bother to send any kind of search party after Annie fell, not even a drone or anything. I always wondered why it took the initiative of a twelve-year-old student to go, search and find Annie, while the Court officials seemed content to stay inside after one of their students had fallen into the ravine. Inaction/belief a search party would be useless because Omega said so? |
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Post by todd on Apr 5, 2022 0:10:10 GMT
I wonder whether this over-dependence on the Omega Device (assuming that's what is indeed at work here) could also explain the Court's failure to anticipate Coyote's response to Antony's restrictions on Annie. Presumably the Omega Device only showed the Court the immediate results (Annie capitulating to her father and (better yet) being so disenheartened as to no longer have the will to engage in further adventures. The Omega Device, however, did not predict Coyote's response - and so the Court assumed that there would be none (maybe reaching the point where the Court simply can't independently consider the possibility of Coyote showing up and knocking buildings down if the Omega Device doesn't predict it).
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Post by Runningflame on Apr 5, 2022 0:44:22 GMT
Heh.  I somehow doubt Kat was the reason for the inaccuracy, or at least the Kat that went back in time. The going back in time was logically consistent – nothing in the past was actually changed, just made to be as it had been the first time they all experienced it. The potential problem, as I see it, is that the time travel incident might be logically consistent form the characters' point of view, but it might not be so from the point of view of a computer extrapolating entirely from base conditions that were measured before the Tic-toc showed up. The Tic-toc DID appear, but there wasn't any actual basis for it appearing in the physical world, so I think it's entirely possible that if Omega had tried to predict the outcome of Annie falling into the ravine, it would conclude that she'd die, and if that conclusion was allowed to be introduced to its overall model of Gunnerkrigg Court, it would kill the accuracy of the whole thing. My thoughts exactly. A machine that works by modeling everything very accurately and then running a simulation would have no way of handling an uncaused effect. |
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Post by zbeeblebrox on Apr 5, 2022 1:18:43 GMT
I somehow doubt Kat was the reason for the inaccuracy, or at least the Kat that went back in time. The going back in time was logically consistent – nothing in the past was actually changed, just made to be as it had been the first time they all experienced it. The potential problem, as I see it, is that the time travel incident might be logically consistent form the characters' point of view, but it might not be so from the point of view of a computer extrapolating entirely from base conditions that were measured before the Tic-toc showed up... But one thing we need to remember is that Kat's foray into the past only seems special to us because it's explicit. However we've watched characters describe implicit time travel over and over again. For example, Annie's fingerprint having always been on the moon, or Jones predating the human race, or when Coyote describes how he came into being in a way that also included all his actions prior to his existence. The aether, as a thing that takes stories and makes them exist, defies time by its very nature. Which is to say, the culprit in all of this is the aether itself. |
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Post by warrl on Apr 5, 2022 6:00:25 GMT
I predict (heh) that I'll also get a cookie for my theory that this is why the court wants all non-human beings gone. They want to be able to totally control everything, and the ether messes up Omega. Control by being able to predict, that is. If they want a specific result and can predict the outcome of any action they may take, they can in theory keep adjusting their planned actions and re-running their predictions until they get the results they want.
And here's the problem with a perfect model of a deterministic universe: this perfect prediction machine can predict what their plan is going to be. In other words, they REALLY have no choice... |
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Post by aline on Apr 5, 2022 6:14:01 GMT
I would also like to point out that the Court didn't bother to send any kind of search party after Annie fell, not even a drone or anything. I always wondered why it took the initiative of a twelve-year-old student to go, search and find Annie, while the Court officials seemed content to stay inside after one of their students had fallen into the ravine. Inaction/belief a search party would be useless because Omega said so? Tbh if a kid fell from that height I wouldn't need a mysterious future-predicting device to know they probably died. Even if there wasn't a magical thing of death that kills everything trying to cross down there. But it's still horrifying that noone but Kat tried to check. |
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Post by mturtle7 on Apr 5, 2022 6:40:23 GMT
The potential problem, as I see it, is that the time travel incident might be logically consistent form the characters' point of view, but it might not be so from the point of view of a computer extrapolating entirely from base conditions that were measured before the Tic-toc showed up... But one thing we need to remember is that Kat's foray into the past only seems special to us because it's explicit. However we've watched characters describe implicit time travel over and over again. For example, Annie's fingerprint having always been on the moon, or Jones predating the human race, or when Coyote describes how he came into being in a way that also included all his actions prior to his existence. The aether, as a thing that takes stories and makes them exist, defies time by its very nature. Which is to say, the culprit in all of this is the aether itself. Ok, this one definitely had me sitting and staring at my screen in utter befuddlement for a while, furiously trying to figure out how to argue that the method of time travel Kat used was meaningfully distinct from the existence of the ether itself. ...I THINK I succeeded, though. Eventually. Sort of. Regardless, well played zbeeblebrox, well played.
Basically, the difference is that the Tic-Toc(s) hadn't 'always' been around, from the rest of the world's point of view. Kat was specifically making it appear and disappear in order to travel to specific times and places. Creatures like Coyote don't really have a specific, verifiable, point of origin, generally because their origins are blatantly incompatible with verifiable reality (as per Jones, Coyote, and the stars in the sky). I know Coyote famously once said that he doesn't actually exist, but for the sake of this argument it might be better to say that there is no point where we can definitively say that at first he didn't exist, and then started existing.
But with the Tic-toc, that's precisely what we do have. Omega could look at, say, the bridge just before Robot crossed it for the first time, and say definitively that there was NO Tic-toc on that bridge, but there WAS a robot and a shadow person. It might not know exactly how or when that robot or that shadow person came into being, but that's not important; what's important is that it knows they're both THERE, and Omega can measure everything about their current state. Thanks to some of the Court's special experiments, it might even conceivably have some Ether-measuring devices that could see and understand Shadow's various etheric qualities at the time (actually, even beyond that we know it could measure his mass, just like Kat did). But because nobody, including Kat and the Norns, ever believed or will believe that the Tic-toc was on that bridge before that moment, it didn't even have a nebulous etheric presence for Omega to detect. Even if there had been a magician on that bridge using etheric powers to make the Tic-toc appear out of nowhere, maybe Omega could have observed that, but no, it just happened to be the freaking Norns instead, who live outside of time and space even in fiction. So that's what makes the Tic-toc special, at least if my theory about how Omega sees etheric stuff is correct.
Incidentally, I'm pretty sure you're misremembering the bit about Annie's fingerprint being on the moon. It didn't retroactively appear to have always been on the moon, it suddenly appeared that very day and freaked out quite a lot of people! Luckily, the Court's scientists all decided (or maybe just claimed) that it was made by a freak solar-wind-storm. No time travel involved there, just Coyote being a jerk and people being good at rationalizing stuff.
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Post by imaginaryfriend on Apr 5, 2022 7:05:49 GMT
I blame Antimony. One of the first things she did was send Shadow back to the Wood accompanied by Robot which riled up Ysengrin. The third thing she did was spring Renard. Then she started mucking with Zeta. Many other students caused many other kinds of trouble, I'm not seeing why any of these things would cause trouble with Omega's predictions. In fact, if one knows Annie's and Ysengrin's personalities I would argue these events were quite predictable! IMHO, unpredictability could only come in when Annie was supposed to die, but didn't thanks to time travel. I think the best evidence that Antimony isn't good for Omega is that she didn't become the Court medium back in Ch. 41. Come to think of it, Jonathan was hiding something about that even from Jones and both Jones and Coyote knew something was up. |
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