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Post by pyradonis on Apr 5, 2022 10:55:49 GMT
I would also like to point out that the Court didn't bother to send any kind of search party after Annie fell, not even a drone or anything. I always wondered why it took the initiative of a twelve-year-old student to go, search and find Annie, while the Court officials seemed content to stay inside after one of their students had fallen into the ravine. Inaction/belief a search party would be useless because Omega said so? Tbh if a kid fell from that height I wouldn't need a mysterious future-predicting device to know they probably died. Even if there wasn't a magical thing of death that kills everything trying to cross down there. But it's still horrifying that noone but Kat tried to check. Well, yes. Believing that one of your people (who is also the daughter of one of your top researchers and of your former medium) likely died is no reason to just leave their battered body there to rot.
But I would also argue that in a world where the Ether can give people the ability to fly, among other things, one should never rule out that supernatural powers saved the day.
Many other students caused many other kinds of trouble, I'm not seeing why any of these things would cause trouble with Omega's predictions. In fact, if one knows Annie's and Ysengrin's personalities I would argue these events were quite predictable! IMHO, unpredictability could only come in when Annie was supposed to die, but didn't thanks to time travel. I think the best evidence that Antimony isn't good for Omega is that she didn't become the Court medium back in Ch. 41. Come to think of it, Jonathan was hiding something about that even from Jones and both Jones and Coyote knew something was up. That the Court didn't want Annie as a medium due to her unruliness and heavy fraternization with the creatures of the Forest seems to be enough of an explanation without bringing Omega into it. But of course it could be that Omega influenced that decision. |
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Post by imaginaryfriend on Apr 5, 2022 12:51:36 GMT
I think the best evidence that Antimony isn't good for Omega is that she didn't become the Court medium back in Ch. 41. Come to think of it, Jonathan was hiding something about that even from Jones and both Jones and Coyote knew something was up. That the Court didn't want Annie as a medium due to her unruliness and heavy fraternization with the creatures of the Forest seems to be enough of an explanation without bringing Omega into it. But of course it could be that Omega influenced that decision. I would argue that being unruly and interacting with etheric beings makes Antimony harder to predict, which makes the fallout of her actions harder to predict. That makes her a conduit for unknown factors. Sure, the Court doesn't like how she behaves but she could be good at the job of Court medium (brokering peace between the Court and Wood, handling any issues that come up without disrupting daily life on either side) while being fiery. Many people who knew or should have known what she was like were surprised when they went with Smitface instead. From the standpoint of making Omega more accurate he was the superior candidate. With his ability he can gatekeep etheric consequences out or set them into a human's idea of order, nice and boring as some might say, but that was ruined by Coyote making Antimony the Wood medium. It is possible that there's something else in play, but if it was something basic like behavior then why did this come as a surprise? Court medium is a relatively important position in the Court yet the legacy with the inside track on the job was discarded with few people knowing it before the big announcement. I said ages ago that I thought part of the reason it was done this way was as a public dis to Antimony for her rule-breaking (both teaching her a lesson and making her an example) but a public shaming is a bit heavy-handed for a teen; it makes more sense if there's an Omega prediction involved, particularly so if it popped out at short notice. |
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Post by alevice on Apr 5, 2022 14:05:42 GMT
I would say that Smith powers are actually probably less predictable to Omega, as it seems to rig situations in Smith's favor usually, even if there was no dice roll involved.
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Post by drmemory on Apr 5, 2022 14:57:49 GMT
Earth is NOT an enclosed system... how could the Omega Device predict stuff happening in the Amazon rainforest...? There is SO much stuff from outside Earth that could influence the growth of that plant Anthony was observing! Minute variations in the intensity of sunlight, the influence of the solar winds over Earth's atmosphere (and hence weather)...etc.
Also... how could the Omega Device predict the need of a Medium? They needed a Medium because of Coyote, Ysengrim and the Forest, and all these Etheric creature and phenomena should mess with the predictions of the Omega Device...
My guess is that they were picking little chunks of the world, one at a time, and testing their prediction algorithm on them. So they picked a square mile or whatever of the Amazon rain forest and were able to predict very precisely that those two slugs would have sex in a certain spot at a certain time. I have to assume they were picking test cases where they could be pretty sure there would be no outside interference, especially etheric.
Also, don't forget - Tony had rules to follow! I'm sure those were put in place to make sure the event would be observed but not interfered with. He actually told Surma at least that part when she tried to doze off. I wonder if observation is part of how it works? Heisenberg...
The fact that they approved Surma to go along may also have been significant! Kat's dad Donald could go along on these because neither of them have any ether stuff going on, but Surma was known to be different. So Omega may have been happy to get the extra data. Was Tony instructed to get Surma to play with her powers while they weren't watching the spot, so Omega could see if that affected its predictions?
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Post by DonDueed on Apr 5, 2022 15:06:59 GMT
The potential problem, as I see it, is that the time travel incident might be logically consistent form the characters' point of view, but it might not be so from the point of view of a computer extrapolating entirely from base conditions that were measured before the Tic-toc showed up. The Tic-toc DID appear, but there wasn't any actual basis for it appearing in the physical world, so I think it's entirely possible that if Omega had tried to predict the outcome of Annie falling into the ravine, it would conclude that she'd die, and if that conclusion was allowed to be introduced to its overall model of Gunnerkrigg Court, it would kill the accuracy of the whole thing. Agree. I would also like to point out that the Court didn't bother to send any kind of search party after Annie fell, not even a drone or anything. I always wondered why it took the initiative of a twelve-year-old student to go, search and find Annie, while the Court officials seemed content to stay inside after one of their students had fallen into the ravine. Inaction/belief a search party would be useless because Omega said so? Or maybe Omega predicted Kat would invent some way to rescue Annie, and the Court wanted to see what she'd come up with. |
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Post by Isildur on Apr 5, 2022 20:59:02 GMT
Even putting aside the quantum indeterminacy stuff we've already discussed (and the fact that you can't just abstract away small-scale phenomena -- due to chaotic systems, the slightest deviation can have huge effects -- think pachinko machines scaled up), I have some trouble understanding how the ether, if it operates so outside of the scientifically measurable, mucks up prediction just a bit and not entirely, in a world where a trickster god can, on a lark, allow a kid to put a thumbprint across nearly the entire near side of the Moon. I'm generally fine with suspending disbelief in order to enjoy tales of magic or very loose sci-fi, it's just that when a story explicitly starts discussing (or even philosophizing about) science in a more detailed way, it becomes tougher to wholly push aside real-world scientific ideas, because it starts to feel like that's a set of topics the author is trying to engage with. It's one thing to nitpick rib xylophones in a slapstick kids' show, another to discuss points an author really seems to be deliberately trying to provoke thought on. Oh well, we'll see where this goes, and if I overthink any of it, at least I won't be the only one around here. (I just fixed a typo of "trackster god", which made me think of this scene.) |
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Post by pyradonis on Apr 5, 2022 22:42:11 GMT
That the Court didn't want Annie as a medium due to her unruliness and heavy fraternization with the creatures of the Forest seems to be enough of an explanation without bringing Omega into it. But of course it could be that Omega influenced that decision. I would argue that being unruly and interacting with etheric beings makes Antimony harder to predict, which makes the fallout of her actions harder to predict. That makes her a conduit for unknown factors. She's still far from being the only student who is like that. For example, Surma was the same, and it was no problem having her involved in a verfication mission. If Omega's predictions can be disrupted simply because there is an unruly person around, then its predictions aren't worth more than randomly pointing your pen on a lottery ticket.
Agree. I would also like to point out that the Court didn't bother to send any kind of search party after Annie fell, not even a drone or anything. I always wondered why it took the initiative of a twelve-year-old student to go, search and find Annie, while the Court officials seemed content to stay inside after one of their students had fallen into the ravine. Inaction/belief a search party would be useless because Omega said so? Or maybe Omega predicted Kat would invent some way to rescue Annie, and the Court wanted to see what she'd come up with. She certainly found a fascinating application for those protein crystals. |
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Post by maxptc on Apr 5, 2022 23:27:44 GMT
So Tonys mission required two people to go, he was going to cancel it. Surma was allowed to go. This trip is why she fell in love with Tony, which resulted in Annie.
Omega said that a medium was needed, which is why Annie met the two people she needed to free Jennie.
If Omega told the Court not to pick Annie as medium, it also caused Coyete to be able to further draw Annie in by offering her the postion of Forest medium.
The machine stopped working properly recently, and while we don't have a precise timeline, I strongly suspect it had to do with Coyete dying. I think it's first mistake was the plan we saw fail, the SM were lead to belive it would work.
Yeah I'm more convinced then ever Coyete has something to do with this.
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Post by imaginaryfriend on Apr 6, 2022 5:28:44 GMT
I would argue that being unruly and interacting with etheric beings makes Antimony harder to predict, which makes the fallout of her actions harder to predict. That makes her a conduit for unknown factors. She's still far from being the only student who is like that. For example, Surma was the same, and it was no problem having her involved in a verfication mission. If Omega's predictions can be disrupted simply because there is an unruly person around, then its predictions aren't worth more than randomly pointing your pen on a lottery ticket. An unruly conduit, not just a person. Antimony is a medium. She's etherically attractive; beings of the etherium want to interact with her and the ether causes problems for Omega predictions. Even without forest-visiting privileges she'd still be problematic, just vastly less so. Surma was also "fiery" but she was more careful about getting caught so they probably couldn't pin enough on her to figure how problematic she was, and Omega was probably in an earlier stage back then. |
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Post by rafk on Apr 6, 2022 8:41:08 GMT
So Tonys mission required two people to go, he was going to cancel it. Surma was allowed to go. This trip is why she fell in love with Tony, which resulted in Annie. Omega said that a medium was needed, which is why Annie met the two people she needed to free Jennie. If Omega told the Court not to pick Annie as medium, it also caused Coyete to be able to further draw Annie in by offering her the postion of Forest medium. The machine stopped working properly recently, and while we don't have a precise timeline, I strongly suspect it had to do with Coyete dying. I think it's first mistake was the plan we saw fail, the SM were lead to belive it would work. Yeah I'm more convinced then ever Coyete has something to do with this. Yes, strongly agreed. I always thought the Tony Surma relationship was a setup by the Court after we saw how it came about but the Omega revelations definitely make it seem like an intended chain of events leading to Annie and leading to Coyote's "death". But the danger with predictions is always in the interpretation. Coyote's "death" has not worked terribly well for the Court. |
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Post by maxptc on Apr 6, 2022 23:40:59 GMT
So Tonys mission required two people to go, he was going to cancel it. Surma was allowed to go. This trip is why she fell in love with Tony, which resulted in Annie. Omega said that a medium was needed, which is why Annie met the two people she needed to free Jennie. If Omega told the Court not to pick Annie as medium, it also caused Coyete to be able to further draw Annie in by offering her the postion of Forest medium. The machine stopped working properly recently, and while we don't have a precise timeline, I strongly suspect it had to do with Coyete dying. I think it's first mistake was the plan we saw fail, the SM were lead to belive it would work. Yeah I'm more convinced then ever Coyete has something to do with this. Yes, strongly agreed. I always thought the Tony Surma relationship was a setup by the Court after we saw how it came about but the Omega revelations definitely make it seem like an intended chain of events leading to Annie and leading to Coyote's "death". But the danger with predictions is always in the interpretation. Coyote's "death" has not worked terribly well for the Court. And lets not forget that dying wasn't the entirety of the plan, dying after the ghost of the river was removed was the plan. That required Annie, very specifically. |
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Post by lisanela on Apr 7, 2022 17:17:42 GMT
I wish Parley's dad could be part of this discussion, since he can predict (most) things so accurately.
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